A series of large earthquakes measuring M5.5 + M6.1 has struck Central Italy. This event has now been accompanied by a noteworthy swarm of aftershocks at the same location.
Damage has been reported across the region struck by this noteworthy earthquake swarm.
Multiple earthquake warnings were issued over the past few days for this exact location in Central Italy.
The most recent official warning came 1 day prior to this earthquake striking. The warning was issued via the earthquake forecast video issued at 10pm Central time (October 25, 2016) – seen here:
Original warning for Italy began for the week issued beginning October 19, 2016:
Following the earthquake warnings seen above, the morning of this Italy earthquake (this morning Oct 26th) a new M5.8 earthquake struck at the North Iran / South Russia border region.
When the M5.8 earthquake struck near Iran’s border, another earthquake warning was issued for Italy to be on watch for an INCREASE by a full magnitude at the warned location ( in Central Italy).
The original warning was for a M4.5 to M5.0 earthquake to strike Central Italy.
The updated warning was for M5.0 to M5.5 to strike based upon the larger activity to the East / Southeast of Italy. Now we see that exact magnitude has struck the exact warned location. Additionally a larger M6.1 earthquake has now struck the very same location.
As it was explained in the forecast video from a day prior to this event, the plate boundary had not moved, and was finally beginning to move again after the earthquake swarm in Greece moved an entire mountain range to the West.
The movement of the mountain range in Greece had blocked the seismic flow across the plate boundary extending throughout Italy up to Torino / South Switzerland. After the mountain range in Greece moved 1.5cm (1/2 inch) West , a very deep M3.6 earthquake struck below the very same mountain range – occurring at over 340 miles depth (560km).
As it was explained when the deep M3.6 occurred below Greece on October 24th, this would result in the flow of seismic pressure to resume across Italy , for pressure to flow back across the plate boundary to the Northwest of Greece.
Here we are two days later, two days after the deep M3.6 below Greece, and over the past two days we’ve seen a rapid increase in M4.0+ earthquakes across Italy.
These events are indeed related.
Information on these earthquakes from the USGS:
|Location/uncertainty||42.865°N 13.056°E± 5.7 km|
|Depth/uncertainty||10.0 km± 1.9|
|Number of Stations||–|
|Number of Phases||124|
|Minimum Distance||5.9 km (0.05°)|
|Travel Time Residual||1.11 s|
|FE Region||CENTRAL ITALY (381)|