US ARMY TEST TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM – WEATHER MODIFICATION 1997- WIKIPEDIA proved wrong on HAARP weather modification

 Published Date: March 17, 2018

 

Test Technology Symposium ’97
“The Army After Next ­ How Will We Test?”

3/31/2013 — Past RADAR pulse animated .GIF images — HAARP rings from 1998-2003

WEATHER MODIFICATION

Dr. Arnold Barnes
Phillips Lab/GPO
Hanscom Air Force Base, MA

Abstract

“The difficulty, cost, and risk of developing a weather control system for military applications are extremely high. However, the potential benefits for national security could be even higher. Enemy weather modification weapons are possibilities which, like it or not, may be possible and must be considered,” Spacecast 2020. This paper considers such concepts as hole boring for surveillance; the use of space mirrors for night battlefield illumination, modifying the environment, enforcement of curfews and similar civil control measures; use of carbon black to retarget precipitation; fog dissipation; and cirrus enhancement.

Original Location: www.dtc.army.mil/tts/1997/proceed/abarnes

 

WEATHER MODIFICATION


Test Technology Symposium ’97

Session B:
Advanced Weapon/Instrumentation Technologies

John Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory
by
Dr. Arnold A. Barnes, Jr.
Senior Scientist
Optical Effects Division
Phillips Laboratory
19 March 1997

Notes: For more information on the basic and applied research being conducted by the former Atmospheric Sciences Division (recently integrated into the Optical Effects Division) and its contractors look on the Internet at the Home Page for the Geophysics Directorate found at

http://www.plh.af.mil

under which you will find the

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DIVISION.

The telephone number for the Optical Effects Division office is (617) 377-2952 or DSN 478-2952.

Dr. Barnes may be reached at (617) 377-2939 or DSN 478-2939. His FAX number is (617) 377-8892 or DSN 478-8892 and his E-mail address is: barnes@plh.af.mil

SLIDE 2

Potential Weather Modification Capabilities AF 2025
DEGRADE ENEMY FORCES
Precipitation Enhancement
– Flood Lines of Communication
– Reduce PGM/Recce Effectiveness
– Decrease Comfort Level/Morale
Storm Enhancement
– Deny Operations
Precipitation Denial
– Deny Fresh Water
– Induce Drought
Space Weather
– Disrupt Communications/Radar
– Disable/Destroy Space Assets
Fog and Cloud Removal
– Deny Concealment
– Increase Vulnerability to PGM/Recce
Detect Hostile Weather Activities

ENHANCE FRIENDLY FORCES
Precipitation Avoidance
– Maintain/Improve LOC
– Maintain Visibility
– Maintain Comfort Level/Morale
Storm Modification
– Choose Battlespace Environment
Space Weather
– Improve Communication Reliability
– Intercept Enemy Transmissions
– Revitalize Space Assets
Fog and Cloud Generation
– Increase Concealment
Fog and Cloud Removal
– Maintain Airfield Operations
– Enhance PGM Effectiveness
Defend Against Enemy Capabilities

Notes: “From enhancing friendly operations or disrupting those of the enemy via small-scale tailoring of natural weather patterns to complete dominance of global communications and counterspace control, weather-modification offers the war fighter a wide-range of possible options to defeat or coerce an adversary. Some of the potential capabilities a weather-modification system could provide to a war-fighting commander in chief (CINC) are listed” above.

“Technology advancements in five major areas are necessary for an integrated weather-modification capability: (1) advanced nonlinear modeling techniques, (2) computational capability, (3) information gathering and transmission, (4) a global sensor array, and (5) weather intervention techniques. Some intervention tools exist today and others may be developed and refined in the future.”

SLIDE 3

Treaty Issues

– The U. N. Convention on the Prohibition of Military or any other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification, which went into effect 5 October 1978, applies only to “widespread, long-lasting or severe” environmental modifications.


– Local, non-permanent changes, such as precipitation enhancement, hail suppression

– Since 1978 the official Air Force position has been that weather modification had little utility or military payoff as a weapon of war.

– The official Air Force position needs to be reevaluated:


– In the light of 19 years of scientific advances
– In the light of advanced weapon systems which are more environmentally sensitive
– To prepare against technological surprise

Notes: Air University‘s SPACECAST 2020 contains a section on Counterforce Weather Control for force enhancement which identifies the necessary prerequisites

“Atmospheric scientists have pursued terrestrial weather modification in earnest since the 1940s, but have made little progress because of scientific, legal, and social concerns, as well as certain controls at various government levels. Using environmental modification techniques to destroy, damage, or injure another state are prohibited. However, space presents us with a new arena, technology provides new opportunities, and our conception of future capabilities compels a reexamination of this sensitive and potentially risky topic.”

“The difficulty, cost, and risk of developing a weather control system for military applications are extremely high. However, the potential benefits for national security.”

SPACECAST 2020 has been updated by AF 2025 which can be found on the internet at:

http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025/volume3/chap15/v3c15-1.htm

SLIDE 4

Potential Weather Modification Capabilities AF 2025

DEGRADE ENEMY FORCES
Precipitation Enhancement
– Flood Lines of Communication
– Reduce PGM/Recce Effectiveness
– Decrease Comfort Level/Morale
Storm Enhancement
– Deny Operations
Precipitation Denial
– Deny Fresh Water
– Induce Drought
Space Weather
– Disrupt Communications/Radar
– Disable/Destroy Space Assets
Fog and Cloud Removal
– Deny Concealment
– Increase Vulnerability to PGM/Recce
Detect Hostile Weather Activities

ENHANCE FRIENDLY FORCES
Precipitation Avoidance
– Maintain/Improve LOC
– Maintain Visibility
– Maintain Comfort Level/Morale
Storm Modification
– Choose Battlespace Environment
Space Weather
– Improve Communication Reliability
– Intercept Enemy Transmissions
– Revitalize Space Assets
Fog and Cloud Generation
– Increase Concealment
Fog and Cloud Removal
– Maintain Airfield Operations
– Enhance PGM Effectiveness
Defend Against Enemy Capabilities

Notes:

From DEFENSE NEWS March 10-16, 1997

U.S. Army War Game Reveals Satellite Vulnerability

Opening Salvo Knocks out Most Space Capabilities

“A recent Army war game set in 2020 revealed the U.S. military’s increasing reliance on satellite-based information dominance may prove as much a liability as an asset in a real conflict.

During the war game, the team playing Russia launched devastating strikes against U.S. satellites. The strike culminated in a nuclear attack that destroyed virtually every satellite orbiting Earth, sending the world “back to about 1950 in terms of technology,” one participant said.”

  • The next two pages describe (1) a natural phenomena which will impact space operations and communications every eleven years, and (2) a man made modification of the ionosphere which has the potential of extending over-the-horizon surveillance and improving communications to the warfighter.
  • The Air Force Geophysics Directorate is heavily involved in both of these areas, both from the research aspects and from the impact and application to Air Force and DoD weapons systems.

SLIDE 5


SOLAR ACTIVITY

Next Maximum: Jan 1999 Mar 2000 Jun 2001

Notes:Solar Cycle 23 Project

The panel examined 28 forecasts, grouped into 6 basic approaches. Four of the 6 were in general agreement. The greatest weight was given to the “precursor” techniques which have physical basis and were successful in predicting the last 2 cycles. While this forecast is for a large cycle, the panel did not find direct evidence that the next cycle will exceed historical record levels, and therefore estimate that the likelihood that Cycle 23 will exceed Cycle 19 is low.

In advance of a confirmation date for Cycle 22/23 minimum, the range in date of maximum is as follows:

January 1999 March 2000 June 2001

In the past solar activity has disrupted communications, navigation and surveillance systems, and has shut down electric power grids. Recent loss of a communication satellite, Telstar 401, has been attributed to solar emissions which passed the satellite at the time of the failure. Solar max will increase the IR background through which surveillance, threat warning and missile systems must operate. Heating of the upper atmosphere will change the orbits and cause the early demise of some satellites. PL/GP is developing methods to forecast and mitigate these changes.

SLIDE 6

HAARP

Notes: HAARP is a scientific endeavor aimed at studying the properties and behavior of the ionosphere, with particular emphasis on being able to understand and use it to enhance communications and surveillance systems (e.g., over-the-horizon) for both civilian and defense purposes.

In addition, diagnostics installed at the HAARP facility will be useful for a variety of other research purposes including the study of global warming and ozone depletion.

HAARP is managed jointly by:

Mr. John Heckscher, Phillips Laboratory/GPS, 29 Randolph Rd., Hanscom AFB, MA 01731-3010 and

Dr. Richard Brandt, Office of Naval Research, 800 North Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22217.

For more information on HAARP see:

http://server5550.itd.nrl.navy.mil/haarp.html
http://www.terraforminginc.com/haarp/

SLIDE 7

Potential Weather Modification Capabilities AF 2025

DEGRADE ENEMY FORCES
Precipitation Enhancement
– Flood Lines of Communication
– Reduce PGM/Recce Effectiveness
– Decrease Comfort Level/Morale
Storm Enhancement
– Deny Operations
Precipitation Denial
– Deny Fresh Water
– Induce Drought
Space Weather
– Disrupt Communications/Radar
– Disable/Destroy Space Assets
Fog and Cloud Removal
– Deny Concealment
– Increase Vulnerability to PGM/Recce
Detect Hostile Weather Activities

ENHANCE FRIENDLY FORCES
Precipitation Avoidance
– Maintain/Improve LOC
– Maintain Visibility
– Maintain Comfort Level/Morale
Storm Modification
– Choose Battlespace Environment
Space Weather
– Improve Communication Reliability
– Intercept Enemy Transmissions
– Revitalize Space Assets
Fog and Cloud Generation
– Increase Concealment
Fog and Cloud Removal
– Maintain Airfield Operations
– Enhance PGM Effectiveness
Defend Against Enemy Capabilities

Notes:The next section concerns the enhancement or retardation of precipitation (rain or snow), the generation or removal of cirrus clouds or contrails, and the removal of fog.

SLIDE 8

HISTORY OF AIR FORCE WEATHER MODIFICATION

PREVIOUS WEATHER MODIFICATION WORK BY THIS LABORATORY’S PREDECESSORS
FIDO; WW II


– Clearing of Supercooled Fog at Airfields in Alaska and other cold regions; 50s and 60s
– Hole Clearing with Carbon Black; 50s and 60s
– Hole Clearing with Silver Iodide, etc.; 50s through 70s
– Hole Clearing by Helicopter; 60s and 70s
– Ho Chi Minh Trail Muddying; 60s and 70s
– Contrail Suppression; 70s

Notes: – FIDO: The technique of using fires or heaters placed along side runways to dissipate the fog and/or low stratus was used in England during WW II. The techniques were improved by this lab and others, and an application of the lab’s work for use at a major airport in the US was cancelled by the AF during the drawdown in the mid 70s.

  • Supercooled Fog Clearing: This technique was developed and improved by this lab, was used successfully

  • Hole Clearing with Carbon Black: Research conducted at Hanscom Field, Massachusetts blackened the inside of our C-47 before the dispersal technique was perfected

  • Hole Clearing by Silver Iodide, Dry Ice and Urea: We showed that cloud holes could be targeted to open over desired airfields. AFCRL-TR-78-0193.

  • Hole Clearing by Helicopter: Research conducted at Lewisburg, West Virginia showed that the size of the hole was directly related to the weight

  • Ho Chi Minh Trail Muddying: Project POPEYE was conducted from Udorn, Thailand from 1967 to 1972 to create rain over parts of the Ho Chi Minh Trail during the rainy southwest monsoon seasons.

  • Contrail Suppression; Fuel additives were developed to reduce the IR signature of contrails from jet engines.

http://www.terraforminginc.com/weather-control/


SLIDE 9


CLOUD SEEDING

WEATHER MODIFICATION USING CARBON BLACK (1)

– Increase Precipitation
– Muddy dirt roads to decrease tractability
– Flood fields and small rivers
– Decrease troop comfort level
– Decrease tractability by snow or freezing rain when the temperature conditions are right


– Decrease Precipitation #


– Dry out roads/fields for improved tractability
– Deny fresh water to troops in semi-dry regions

Notes: The following is an example of the use of one particular seeding agent* to modify the weather. This information was provided to the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (A&T) on a request for ideas for Non-Lethal Technologies and Weapons which “avoided or minimized the loss of life and associated damage.”

In the paper “Weather Modification by Carbon Dust Absorption of Solar Energy” Gray et al (Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 15, April 1976, 355-386) showed that observational and modeling information indicated that the solar heating of carbon dust could be deployed on the theater scale (~100-300 km) to achieve precipitation enhancement, to create cirrus clouds, and to dissipate fog and low clouds.

Risks and Limitations:

•Creation of optimum submicron particles LOW

•Achieve and maintain desired horizontal distribution of carbon black MEDIUM

•Opportunities to capitalize on investment militarily MEDIUM/HIGH

•Political implications / health hazards MEDIUM/LOW

  • Other biodegradable seeding agents, such as silver iodide and urea, have shown some successes, but more research is needed to find (or develop) optimum seeding agents and to forecast suitable situations.

This may be accomplished by enhancing precipitation in other nearby areas.

SLIDE 10

CLOUD SEEDING (cont.)

WEATHER MODIFICATION USING CARBON BLACK (2)
– Increase Cirrus Cloud Cover


– Deny visual satellite or high altitude reconnaissance
– Decrease light level for night time operations


– Dissipate Fog


– Uncover targets for visual raids
– Provide visual inspection of damage
– Provide visual reconnaissance
– Open airfields for landing / recovery

Notes: Project Plan: MAJOR MILESTONES not funded

• Numerical model studies completed 1997
• Engineering design of test engine model 1998
• Ground-based field trials completed 2000
• Airborne T&E of prototype completed 2002
• Engineering design for airborne carbon black delivery system completed 2004

FY 6.1 6.2 6.3 TOTAL

96 $1.0M $1.0M
97 $1.0M $1.0M
98 $1.0M $1.5M $2.5M
99 $1.0M $1.5M $2.5M
00 $1.5M $2.0M $3.5M
01 $1.5M $2.0M $3.5M
02 $1.5M $2.0M $3,5M
03 $2.0M $2.0M
04 $2.0M $2.0M
05 $2.0M $2.0M

Rough estimate of total cost to operational capability: $23.5M

Life cycle costs have not been estimated.

Build upon (1) NOAA’s “Atmospheric Modification Program” (AMP), a joint NOAA/States effort written into NOAA’s budget every year by Congress, (2) the Illinois State Water Survey studies of inadvertent weather modification, and (3) articles in the Journal of Weather Modification.

SLIDE 11

STRATEGY FOR RE-EVALUATION OF CLOUD AND FOG MODIFICATION

  • PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF NUCLEATION
  • CLOUD PHYSICS AND RADIATION
  • COMPUTERS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS
  • Notes: Over the years there have been small university groups looking at the physics and chemistry of nucleation including the processes of phase change of water in the atmosphere. Advances in these fields have not been very actively coordinated. One should employ recent technology to search for, or develop, optimum seeding agents to dissipate clouds; to extend the lifetime, extent and optical thickness of clouds; and to retarget areas of precipitation.
  • Research in the field of cloud physics and radiative interactions is beginning to pickup because of (1) Climate Change investigations of global warming, (2) an AF desire to suppress

The use of computer models to understand the vagaries of weather is essential. Computer models of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation would be employed to test the conceptual models and then would be tested against actual cases taken from experimental data. We see these models as the key to forecasting the possibilities of utilizing weather modification for use by the warfighter.

SLIDE 12

MODELING AND SIMULATION

WARNING – MUST TEST AGAINST REAL DATA


– NUCLEAR WINTER vs NUCLEAR SUMMER
– US SUPERSONIC TRANSPORT AND OZONE


WEATHER FORECASTS GET TIMELY FEEDBACK


– NWP BASIC EQUATIONS CORRECTED EMPIRICAL

Notes: Depending on a variation in reasonable assumptions, different simulation models have come up with either “nuclear winter” or “nuclear summer.”

Controversies over the effects of supersonic transports operations on depletion of ozone in the stratosphere led to the demise of the US supersonic transport program. The arguments were based on the reaction rates of ozone which were not well known at the time. The uncertainties in the reaction rates were large enough to include rates favorable to both sides of the argument. Subsequent measurements of the rates have reduced the uncertainties and indicate that the effects would have been small.

The basic equations for forecasting have been known for years, but they include sound waves. In order to run the models on high speed computers the equations had to be modified to exclude sound waves. These modified equations in turn have had to be “tuned” empirically to give better forecasts. (It might be noted that weather forecasters receive a lot of feedback when their forecasts are wrong.)

The “butterfly” effect in CHAOS theory is an example of what happens in weather forecasting. CHAOS theory was first discovered and published by Prof. Ed Lorenz of the Meteorology Department at MIT.

SLIDE 13

CLOUD COVER OVER THE EARTH

CHANCES = CLIMATOLOGICAL AND HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF CLOUDS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SIMULATIONS


– COMPLETE GLOBAL COVERAGE EVERY HOUR FOR ONE YEAR
– IR & VISUAL DATA FROM SATELLITES
– CLOUD/NO CLOUD (C/NC) FOR (5 KM)**2 AREAS

SERCAA = SUPPORT OF ENVIRONMENTAL REQUIREMENTS FOR CLOUD ANALYSIS AND ARCHIVES


– REAL-TIME COVERAGE FOR OPERATIONAL USE
– BEING DEVELOPED BY PL/GPA
– INCLUDES CLOUD HEIGHT INFORMATION

Notes: The CHANCES Final Report, PL-TR-95-2101, dated July 1995, was produced by STC-Metsat under an SBIR contract. Extension of this work to layered clouds can be found at

For recent references to SERCAA see:
pages 131 – 133 of the CIDOS-95 preprint, PL-TR-95-2129, dated 1 October 1995.
PL-TR-96-2224, SERCAA Final Report, 14 August 1996, by Gary B. Gustafson, Robert P. d’Entremont and Ronald G. Isaacs of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.

Cloud height information is used in the planning of the height and type of surveillance missions or of weapons delivery missions.

SLIDE 14

CHANCES IR DATABASE 23 APR 1994, 2000 UTC

Notes: This is an example of the CHANCES IR database for the one hour centered on 2000 UTC.

The data were obtained from eight satellites using both the visible and IR. Lower clouds are darker gray, hence the difference between this and the following viewgraph. In order to fill in missing areas, data from the nearest hour, forward or backward, were used.

Note the intertropical convergence zone and the frontal zone across Florida and out into the Atlantic.

SLIDE 15

CHANCES C/NC PRODUCT 23 APR 1994, 2000 UTC


Notes: In this example of CHANCES data the oceans are blue, the land masses are green or brown, and the clouds are overlaid in white.

Each area (approximately 5 km X 5 km) is determined to be either Cloudy or clear (NoCloud), hence the C/NC designation.

Since this is an equal area projection, it clearly shows the extent (approximately 70%) of clouds over the whole earth.

In summary, clouds are important when doing satellite surveillance or reconnaissance in the visible or IR.

SLIDE 16

CLOUD IMPACTS ON DOD OPERATIONS AND SYSTEMS



WW II – Aborted Missions, FIDO


VIETNAM – Operation POPEYE


GULF WAR – Aborted Missions


CIDOS – CONFERENCES EVERY 18 MONTHS
23-25 September 1997, Naval Warfare Center, RIPOC: Donald Chisholm, PL/GPA, 617-377-2975.

Notes: WW II: FIDO used for 2500 landings in England. Many aborted missions over Europe.

VIETNAM: Operations POPEYE run by people from our lab to increase rainfall over the Ho Chi Minh trail to slow the transportation of supplies from the north.

GULFWAR: Many missions aborted because of clouds. Navy had to jettison bombs on return to aircraft carriers. IR tactical decision aids developed by PL/GPA used extensively.

CIDOS: Cloud Impacts on DoD Operations and Systems. The next conference will be at the Naval Warfare Center, RI, 23-25 September 1997. POC = Donald Chisholm, PL/GPA, 617-377-2975, DSN 478-2975, FAX = DSN 377-8892.

SLIDE 17

POTENTIAL WEATHER MODIFICATION CAPABILITIES AF 2025

DEGRADE ENEMY FORCES
Precipitation Enhancement
– Flood Lines of Communication
– Reduce PGM/Recce Effectiveness
– Decrease Comfort Level/Morale
Storm Enhancement
– Deny Operations
– Precipitation Denial
– Deny Fresh Water
– Induce Drought
Space Weather
– Disrupt Communications/Radar
– Disable/Destroy Space Assets
Fog and Cloud Removal
– Deny Concealment
– Increase Vulnerability to PGM/Recce
Detect Hostile Weather Activities

ENHANCE FRIENDLY FORCES
Precipitation Avoidance
– Maintain/Improve LOC
– Maintain Visibility
– Maintain Comfort Level/Morale
Storm Modification
– Choose Battlespace Environment
Space Weather
– Improve Communication Reliability
– Intercept Enemy Transmissions
– Revitalize Space Assets
Fog and Cloud Generation
– Increase Concealment
Fog and Cloud Removal
– Maintain Airfield Operations
– Enhance PGM Effectiveness
Defend Against Enemy Capabilities

Notes: In the previous section it has been shown that small scale changes in the weather can be made. In addition to retargeting precipitation; opening holes in fog and low stratus to facilitate landing, recovery or surveillance; local modification of cirrus clouds and contrails; hail suppression and frost prevention are used in some countries to protect crops from damage.

The next page looks at the energy of major storm systems such as hurricanes and the major low pressure systems which we see on daily weather maps crossing the United States. The energy in these storms is orders of magnitude larger than that which is readily available to mankind for modifying these storms.

At the present time, the only hope that we see of modifying these storms (and this is a long shot) would be to improve temporal and spatial weather forecasts to the point where we could forecast the “butterfly” effects.

SLIDE 18

STORM MODIFICATION

  • ENERGY REACHING TOP OF ATMOSPHERE FROM THE SUN
    1340 WATTS/m2 = 1340 joules m-2 sec-1
    1.7 x 1017 joules sec-1 @ 4 x 107 Tons TNT sec-1 = 40 Megatons TNT sec-1


– SMALL THUNDERSTORM
7 x 109 joules sec-1 @ 2 Tons TNT sec-1


– LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
7 x 1011 joules sec-1 @ 200 Tons TNT sec-1


– MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
7 x 1013 joules sec-1 @ 20 Kilotons TNT sec-1


– HURRICANE
7 x 1014 joules sec-1 @ 200 Kilotons TNT sec-1


– AVAILABLE MAN RETRIEVED ENERGY SMALL


– CHAOS “BUTTERFLY” EFFECT UNPREDICTABLE

Notes: Storm energy calculated using heat of condensation for a rainfall rate of 1cm/hr = 7×103 Watts/m2 = 7×103 joules m-2 sec-1 . Typical area for small thunderstorm =(1km)2 = 106 m2; for large severe thunderstorm =(10km)2 = 108 m2; for major storm systems =(100km)2 = 1010 m2; and for hurricanes = 1000 x large severe thunderstorms = 1011 m2. (Weather and Climate Modification, 1974, W. N.. Hess, editor, John Wiley & Sons, pp. 130-133.)

A small thunderstorm lasting about 20 minutes would expend about 8.4 x 1010 joules @ 2.4 Kilotons of TNT.

In one day a hurricane would expend 2 x 1019 joules @ 5000 Megatons of TNT.

The amount of energy available for man to use is small compared to the energy in these storms. In addition, the effects of adding large amounts of energy to these storms would have unpredictable and possibly undesirable side effects.

CHAOS theory shows that small perturbations can end up having large effects, but available atmospheric data and model resolution are currently, and in the foreseeable future, not good enough to predict the outcome of adding energy to these storms.

SLIDE 19

IMPROVEMENTS IN WEATHER FORECASTS

  • SATELLITE WITH 26 IR CHANNELS


– 2004 PROJECTED LAUNCH

– WILL PROVIDE WORLD WIDE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES BY 2020


– CHAOS SEEMS TO BE LIMITED TO ACTIVE REGIONS


– LOOK FOR THE “BUTTERFLY”


– LIMITS OF FORECASTS

1950 3 DAYS
1997 7 DAYS
2040 14 DAYS


– MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN CLOUD FORECASTS BY 2010

Notes: The basic equations for the atmosphere were laid down by Richardson during WW I. Because they contain sound and other high frequency waves, certain assumptions had to be made to simplify the equations so that they could be run on computers to provide Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP). In the ‘50s the forecasts showed skill out to only 3 days. Rapid feedback to forecasters has prompted the use of empirical corrections which have been incorporated into the models so that forecasts out to seven to ten days now show skill over climatology.

Clouds and water vapor seem to be the key to further progress. New satellite data should provide improved 3 dimensional, global coverage of these parameters. Improvements in the forecasts will be heavily dependent on advances in distributed processing and other computer technologies.

SLIDE 20

NEW WEAPON SYSTEMS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE ATMOSPHERE

  • COMPOSITE MATERIALS AND LIGHTNING


– ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS AND LIGHTNING


– NEED TO INVOLVE WEATHER OFFICERS VERY EARLY


– WW II RADAR EXAMPLE


– THE ATMOSPHERE CAN HELP AS WELL AS HINDER


– CLOUDS AND THE AIRBORNE LASERLASER

– LIGHTNING ROD TO TRIGGER LIGHTNING
– LASER FOG CLEARING AND HOLE BORING

Notes: Lightning has been blowing holes in aircraft radomes for years.

The old aircraft with metal skins acted as Faraday cages to protect things inside the aircraft. With the modern electronics being more susceptible to stray currents, lightning and EM weapons become more of a concern.

During WW II the Navy developed a radar system out in the southwest. When they put it aboard ship it did not work because the frequency was in the water vapor absorption band.

PL is in the process of developing tactical decision aids for the Airborne Laser (ABL) so as to minimize the impact of clouds on the ABL operations.

SLIDE 21

SUMMARY

  • MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS BY 2010


– 14 DAY FORECASTS BY 2040


– CURRENT CAPABILITIES


– TARGETED FOG DISPERSAL
– LOCAL CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION
– CLOUD MODIFICATION – SURVEILLANCE/COVERAGE


– HOLE BORING
– CREATE/SUPPRESS CIRRUS/CONTRAILS


– IONOSPHERIC MODIFICATION


– ENERGY REQUIREMENTS TOO LARGE FOR MAJOR STORMS


– TREATY RESTRICTIONS


– NEW WEAPON SYSTEMS PUSH THE ENVELOPE


– THE ENVIRONMENT MUST BE CONSIDERED FROM THE START OF THE CONCEPT/DESIGN FOR ALL NEW WEAPON SYSTEMS

Notes: Improvements in forecasts will follow from better and faster computers, improved communications and more detailed atmospheric observations from satellites, UAVs, microchips and ground based remote sensing.

Current techniques for small area, short term atmospheric modifications will become easier to implement and will have improved accuracy as to the predicted results.

Modifications of storms of thunderstorm size and larger are unlikely because of the energy required, the unknown side effects, and possible treaty violations.

Due to political environmental concerns, it is doubtful that the treaty will be weakened. It is more likely to be made more restrictive with the growth of population and water demands.

As weapons and other systems become more sophisticated, the atmospheric environment will continue to be a major factor in the usefulness and operational effectiveness of these systems. For this reason it is imperative that atmospheric scientists be brought in at the beginning on any and all new proposed systems so as to avoid the costs of altering or abandoning the system at a later date.

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